Introduction
Transport planning and travel demand modelling decisions are often made on forecasts nobody can explain: a rail line is justified with trip tables that were never validated, a bus network is redesigned without testing mode shift, and parking and pricing policies are adopted without estimating their effect on traffic. This Core Concept course gives planners and modellers a traceable method to build and calibrate a four-step model, forecast demand under future scenarios, test demand management and public transport options, and appraise multimodal corridor schemes. Participants produce a Corridor Transport Plan with Demand Forecast and Appraisal.
Course Objectives
- Structure a transport planning study from goals, objectives and problem definition through options, evaluation and monitoring
- Specify household travel surveys, traffic and passenger counts and passive GPS or mobile data to build a model base year
- Build and calibrate trip generation, gravity model distribution, logit mode choice and highway and transit assignment in a macroscopic modelling package
- Forecast travel demand for future land use and network scenarios and test travel demand management and public transport service options
- Analyse accessibility, corridor performance and emissions for multimodal alternatives and appraise them with cost-benefit and multi-criteria methods
- Prepare a Corridor Transport Plan with demand forecast, appraisal summary and stakeholder engagement plan for decision makers
Target Audience
- Transport planning staff who prepare strategic, regional and corridor transport plans
- Demand modelling staff who build, run and maintain macroscopic travel demand models
- Road authority staff who prioritise network investment and review forecasts behind road schemes
- Public transport authority staff who plan routes, frequencies and rapid transit investments
- Urban planning staff who test the transport effects of land use plans and growth scenarios
- Consultant planners who deliver modelling and appraisal studies for public clients
Course Outline
Day 1: Transport Planning Process, Objectives and Study Design
- Rational Planning Model: Goals, Problem Definition, Options, Evaluation and Plan
- Pre-Analysis, Technical Analysis and Post-Analysis Phases of a Transport Study
- SMART Transport Objectives and Problem Statement Template
- Strategic, Corridor and Sub-Area Study Scales and Model Fitness for Purpose
- Study Scoping Matrix: Horizon, Modes, Trip Purposes and Time Periods
Day 2: Travel Data, Zoning Systems and Network Coding
- Household Travel Survey Design: Sampling, Trip Diaries and Expansion Weights
- Screenline Traffic Counts, Passenger Boarding Counts and Roadside Interview Surveys
- Passive GPS, Mobile Network and Smart Card Data for Origin-Destination Matrices at Overview
- Traffic Analysis Zone System Design, Centroids and Connectors
- Highway and Transit Network Coding: Link Types, Speed-Flow Curves and Line Routes
Day 3: Trip Generation and Trip Distribution
- Trip Production Regression and Cross-Classification Rates by Trip Purpose
- Trip Attraction Models and Production-Attraction Balancing
- Gravity Model Formulation with Negative Exponential Friction Factors
- Doubly Constrained Distribution and Furness Balancing Factor Iteration
- Trip Length Frequency Distribution Check Against Observed Survey Data
Day 4: Mode Choice Logit Models and Network Assignment
- Generalised Cost: In-Vehicle Time, Waiting, Walking, Fares and Value of Time
- Multinomial and Nested Logit Mode Choice Utility Functions
- Wardrop User Equilibrium Highway Assignment and Volume-Delay Functions
- Transit Assignment: Headway-Based and Timetable-Based Path Choice
- Model Runs in VISUM, EMME or Cube-Type Macroscopic Packages
Day 5: Calibration, Validation and Scenario Forecasting Case
- Calibration Targets: Mode Shares, Trip Lengths and Screenline Totals
- Validation Statistics: GEH, Percentage Root Mean Square Error and Count Comparisons
- Matrix Estimation from Counts and the Limits of Adjustment
- Future-Year Scenario Build: Land Use Inputs, Network Schemes and Growth Assumptions
- Guided Case: Base-Year Model Check and Do-Minimum Forecast Report
Day 6: Travel Demand Management Measures and Their Modelled Effects
- Parking Supply Caps, Charging and Cost Allocation to Users
- Congestion Charging and Time-Distance-Place Road Pricing Elasticities
- Flexible Work Schedules, Workplace Travel Plans and Peak Spreading
- Walking and Cycling Networks, Micromobility and Active Travel Demand Estimates
- Representing Demand Management Packages in Generalised Cost and Mode Choice
Day 7: Public Transport Service Planning and Land Use Integration
- Route Network Design: Trunk-Feeder Versus Direct-Service Structures
- Frequency Setting, Load Profiles and Fleet Requirement Calculation
- Bus Rapid Transit and Light Rail Option Comparison at Overview
- Land Use-Transport Interaction and Transit-Oriented Development Density Scenarios
- Station Catchment and Interchange Demand Estimation
Day 8: Accessibility, Corridor Studies and Stakeholder Engagement
- Accessibility Indicators: Cumulative Opportunities, Gravity-Based and Travel Time Isochrones
- Multimodal Corridor Performance Profile: Demand, Capacity and Reliability
- Corridor Option Long List and Sifting Criteria
- Stakeholder Mapping and Consultation Plan for Transport Schemes
- Presenting Forecast Uncertainty and Model Limitations to Decision Makers
Day 9: Appraisal, Emissions and Monitoring of Transport Plans
- Cost-Benefit Analysis: Travel Time Savings, Operating Costs and Benefit-Cost Ratio
- Optimism Bias Adjustment and Sensitivity Tests on Costs and Demand
- Multi-Criteria Analysis Scoring and Weighting of Economic, Equity and Environmental Effects
- Transport Emissions Estimation from Vehicle Kilometres, Speeds and Fleet Mix
- Post-Opening Evaluation and Plan Monitoring Indicator Framework
Day 10: Capstone: Corridor Transport Plan with Demand Forecast and Appraisal
- Corridor Case Brief: Growth Scenario, Problems and Objectives Confirmation
- Demand Forecast Run for Do-Minimum and Two Intervention Options
- Demand Management and Public Transport Package Selection with Evidence
- Appraisal Summary Table Combining Cost-Benefit and Multi-Criteria Results
- Corridor Transport Plan Presentation and Peer Challenge Panel
Skills You Will Gain
- Transport Study Scoping
- Travel Survey Specification
- Zone and Network Coding
- Gravity Model Calibration
- Logit Mode Choice Estimation
- Demand Model Validation
- Transport Scheme Appraisal
- Corridor Option Sifting
Why Attend This Course
- Return with a Corridor Transport Plan with Demand Forecast and Appraisal that can serve as a template for the next corridor or network study
- Question consultants' models by checking survey expansion, calibration targets, validation statistics and scenario assumptions
- Explain to boards and funding bodies why one corridor option is preferred, using forecast demand, benefit-cost results and multi-criteria scores
- Exchange modelling and planning practice with peers from road, public transport, municipal and consultancy organisations
Conclusion
Transport plans hold up when the forecast behind them can be traced from survey data to trip tables to assigned flows. The first week builds that chain: study design, data, zoning and networks, trip generation, gravity distribution, logit mode choice, assignment, calibration and scenario forecasting. The second week adds what a model alone does not answer: demand management, public transport service planning, land use integration, accessibility, corridor studies, appraisal, emissions and stakeholder engagement. On the final day participants present a Corridor Transport Plan with Demand Forecast and Appraisal.
