Nitaqat Forecasting with HR Analytics: Workforce Dashboards for Saudization Rates – London, 4–8 Jan 2027

Programme overview

Technical depth: Practitioner · Practical mode: Modelling build

Introduction

Establishments in Saudi Arabia must hold their Saudization rate above the Nitaqat Mutawar band thresholds, which rise each year to 2028, yet many track it in spreadsheets that show last month's position rather than next quarter's. Resignations, contract expiries and slow hiring then push the entity into a lower band before anyone reacts. This course equips HR professionals to turn HRIS, payroll, GOSI and Qiwa records into a governed workforce dataset, a live dashboard and a forecast of the Saudization rate and Nitaqat band under alternative scenarios. Participants leave with a Nitaqat Forecasting Dashboard built on their own entity.

Course Objectives

• Build a clean, governed workforce dataset from HRIS, payroll, GOSI and Qiwa contract records using a documented data dictionary
• Calculate headcount, turnover, retention and Nitaqat Saudization rate metrics consistently with the Nitaqat Mutawar guide and ISO 30414 definitions
• Design workforce dashboards that show the current Saudization rate and Nitaqat band by entity, grade and job family
• Forecast the Saudization rate and band position from hiring, attrition and contract-expiry flows using time-series and scenario models
• Identify forecasting errors, data-quality failures and employee privacy risks under the Saudi PDPL, and apply a control to each
• Produce a Nitaqat Forecasting Dashboard that management can use to decide hiring and retention actions

Target Audience

• HR analysts and HRIS specialists responsible for workforce data and reporting
• Workforce planning officers tracking headcount against Nitaqat band thresholds
• Talent acquisition coordinators monitoring the hiring pipeline for Saudi candidates
• HR operations and payroll professionals maintaining employee master data and GOSI registrations
• HR compliance officers preparing Saudization reports for management
• HR business partner support staff producing monthly people reports

Course Outline

Day 1: Workforce Data Foundations and the Nitaqat Baseline

• People Analytics Maturity Assessment Using the Bersin Four-Level Model
• LAMP Framework: Logic, Analytics, Measures and Process
• Workforce Data Inventory: HRIS, Payroll, GOSI and Qiwa Contract Records
• Nitaqat Mutawar Saudization Rate Definition: Entity Averages and SAR 4,000 Wage Weighting
• Current-State Nitaqat Baseline by Entity, Economic Activity and Job Family

Day 2: The Nitaqat Formula, Metric Standards and Analytics Methods

• Nitaqat Mutawar 2026 Band Thresholds: Logarithmic Formula by Economic Activity and Entity Size
• ISO 30414:2025 Human Capital Reporting Metrics for Workforce Composition
• ISO/TS 30421:2021 Turnover and Retention Metric Calculations
• ISO 30409:2016 Workforce Planning Process and Supply-Demand Logic
• CRISP-DM Cycle, Data Dictionary and Metric Definition Cards for HR Analytics

Day 3: Building Workforce Dashboards

• Power Query Data Cleansing and Employee Master Data Joins
• Star Schema Data Model for Headcount, Movements and Positions
• DAX Measures for Headcount, Weighted Saudization Rate and Rolling Turnover
• Dashboard Layout Using the IBCS SUCCESS Formula
• Drill-Through Views by Saudi and Expatriate Mix, Grade and Tenure Band

Day 4: Forecasting, Scenarios and Controls

• Hiring and Exit Flow Modelling with Cohort Survival Curves
• Exponential Smoothing Forecasts of the Saudization Rate and Nitaqat Band Position
• Logistic Regression Attrition Risk Scoring for Saudi Talent
• What-If Parameters for 2026 to 2028 Band Thresholds and Monte Carlo Scenario Ranges
• Employee Data Privacy Controls Under the Saudi PDPL and ISO/IEC 27701:2025

Day 5: Modelling Build and the Nitaqat Forecasting Dashboard

• Multi-Site Retail Case: Red Band Early-Warning Indicator Build
• Engineering Contractor Case: Project Demobilisation Impact on the Nitaqat Band
• Nitaqat Forecasting Dashboard Build on Own Entity Structure
• Forecast Accuracy Testing with MAPE and Back-Testing
• Management Briefing Pack and Dashboard Walkthrough

Skills You Will Gain

• People Analytics
• Workforce Data Governance
• Saudization Metric Design
• Data Visualisation
• Time-Series Forecasting
• Attrition Risk Modelling
• Scenario Analysis
• Management Reporting

Why Attend This Course

• Return to work with a Nitaqat Forecasting Dashboard that shows where the Saudization rate and band are heading, not only where they stand
• Spot a likely drop in Nitaqat band months ahead and show management which hiring or retention actions will prevent it
• Replace manual spreadsheet reporting with a repeatable data model that refreshes each month from HRIS, GOSI and Qiwa data
• Compare approaches with HR practitioners from other sectors and economic activities facing rising Nitaqat thresholds

Conclusion

Nitaqat bands are usually lost through gradual drift rather than a single event, so the value lies in seeing that drift early. This Core Concept course moves from building a governed workforce dataset from HRIS, GOSI and Qiwa records, through the Nitaqat Mutawar formula, recognised metric standards and dashboard design, to forecasting the Saudization rate under realistic hiring and attrition scenarios. The final day turns that work into a Nitaqat Forecasting Dashboard, giving participants a tested tool for monthly reporting and a clear basis for their next workforce recommendation.