Programme overview
Introduction:
Labour market analysis in many public bodies stalls at publishing headline unemployment figures, while vacancies stay unfilled, graduates enter the wrong occupations and employment programmes are funded without evidence of effect. Survey, administrative and job-posting data sit in separate units and rarely reach policy decisions in time. This Core Concept course equips ministry, statistics and employment service staff to read labour indicators correctly, run an observatory work programme, forecast occupational demand and design and evaluate active labour market policies. Participants produce a Labour Market Diagnostic and Policy Brief for a sector or region.
Course Objectives:
- Calculate and interpret participation, employment, unemployment, underutilisation, vacancy, wage and productivity indicators in line with ICLS statistical standards
- Combine labour force survey, administrative register and online job-posting data into a consistent evidence base with documented quality checks
- Plan the products, data flows and user services of a labour market information system or observatory
- Forecast occupational demand and identify skills gaps by sector and region using shift-share, location quotient and replacement demand methods
- Select and design active labour market measures such as training, wage subsidies and job matching services, with targeting rules and an evaluation plan
- Produce a Labour Market Diagnostic and Policy Brief that turns indicators into clear messages for decision-makers
Target Audience:
- Labour ministry analysts responsible for monitoring employment trends and advising on labour policy
- Statistics office staff responsible for labour force survey outputs and labour indicator releases
- Observatory and labour market information teams responsible for data integration, dashboards and publications
- Public employment service planners responsible for designing and targeting employment and training programmes
- HR-policy and national workforce planning units responsible for skills, localisation and education-to-work alignment
- Evaluation and performance managers responsible for measuring the results of employment measures
Course Outline:
Day 1: Labour Market Concepts, Indicators and Current Picture
- Labour Force Framework: Working-Age Population, Employed, Unemployed and Outside the Labour Force
- Participation Rate and Employment-to-Population Ratio Calculation
- Frictional, Structural, Seasonal and Cyclical Unemployment Diagnosis
- Time-Related Underemployment and Labour Underutilisation Measures
- Current Labour Market Snapshot Template for a Participant Economy
Day 2: Data Sources, Statistical Standards and Observatory Architecture
- ICLS Statistical Standards and ILOSTAT Concepts and Definitions
- Labour Force Survey Design, Sampling Error and Seasonal Adjustment
- Administrative Registers: Social Insurance, Work Permits and Jobseeker Records
- Online Job-Posting Data: Scraping, Deduplication and Occupation Coding
- Labour Market Information System Blueprint: Data Flows, Products and User Groups
Day 3: Demand, Skills and Sector Analysis
- Vacancy Rates, Hard-to-Fill Posts and the Beveridge Curve
- Wage Distribution, Real Earnings and Unit Labour Cost Analysis
- Shift-Share and Location Quotient Analysis for Sectors and Regions
- Occupational Demand Projection with Expansion and Replacement Demand
- Skills Gap Matrix Linking Education Output to Occupational Demand
Day 4: Active Labour Market Policy Design and Evaluation
- Bonoli ALMP Typology: Incentive Reinforcement, Employment Assistance, Upskilling and Employment Subsidies
- Wage Subsidy Design: Eligibility, Duration, Deadweight and Displacement Effects
- Public Employment Service Job Matching, Profiling and Caseload Targeting
- Randomised and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Employment Programmes
- Policy Monitoring Framework: Output, Outcome and Net Impact Indicators
Day 5: Case Work and the Labour Market Diagnostic and Policy Brief
- Manufacturing Region Case: Rising Vacancies Alongside Youth Unemployment
- Health and Care Sector Case: Occupational Shortage Forecast and Training Response
- Graduate Transition Case: Wage Subsidy Versus Training Programme Choice
- Labour Market Insight Communication: Indicator Charts, Key Messages and Release Notes
- Labour Market Diagnostic and Policy Brief Drafting and Peer Review
Skills You Will Gain:
- Labour Indicator Interpretation
- Labour Force Survey Analysis
- Job-Posting Data Processing
- Occupational Demand Forecasting
- Sector and Regional Labour Analysis
- Employment Programme Design
- Programme Impact Evaluation
- Labour Market Communication
Why Attend This Course:
- Return with a Labour Market Diagnostic and Policy Brief for a sector or region your unit covers
- Explain to decision-makers why unemployment and vacancies can rise together and what that implies for policy
- Judge whether an employment programme changed outcomes or only funded hires that would have happened anyway
- Compare observatory and employment policy practice with analysts from ministries, statistics offices and employment services in other economies
Conclusion:
Sound labour market analysis links what surveys, registers and job postings show to the choices ministries make about training, subsidies and job matching. The course moves from core indicators and underutilisation measures, through data sources, statistical standards and observatory design, to vacancy, wage, sector and occupational demand analysis, then to the design and evaluation of active labour market policies. The final day applies these methods to cases from several sectors and produces a Labour Market Diagnostic and Policy Brief ready for review by senior officials.